Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict
Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type co...
متن کاملThe emergence of "fifty-fifty" probability judgments through Bayesian updating under ambiguity
This paper explains the empirical phenomenon of persistent “fifty-fifty”probability judgments through a model of Bayesian updating under ambiguity. To this purpose I characterize an announced probability judgment as a Bayesian estimate given as the solution to a Choquet expected utility maximization problem with respect to a neo-additive capacity that has been updated in accordance with the Gen...
متن کاملNeural Correlates of Decision-Making Under Ambiguity and Conflict
HIGHLIGHTS We use a simple gambles design in an fMRI study to compare two conditions: ambiguity and conflict.Participants were more conflict averse than ambiguity averse.Ambiguity aversion did not correlate with conflict aversion.Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex correlated with ambiguity level and ambiguity aversion.Activation in the ventral striatum correlated with conflict level and...
متن کاملMinimizing the Probability of Lifetime Ruin Under Ambiguity Aversion
We determine the optimal robust investment strategy of an individual who targets at a given rate of consumption and seeks to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin when she does not have perfect confidence in the drift of the risky asset. Using stochastic control, we characterize the value function as the unique classical solution of an associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, obta...
متن کاملConflict Sensitivity and the Conjunction Fallacy: Eye-tracking Evidence for Logical Intuitions in Conjunction Probability Judgments
Recent evidence shows that, contrary to what is commonly assumed, people who are pressured to think fast are also less likely to provide a heuristic judgment when heuristic and logical considerations point to conflicting answers in a conjunction fallacy task (Vallée-Tourangeau & FaureBloom, under review). The present study explores this finding using an eye-tracking methodology. Eye movements f...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Frontiers in Psychology
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1664-1078
DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00674